The hoarding and shortages of the COVID Pandemic are actually not something new to the American scene.
While it has been over a half a century since such things happened, the early history of the United States, all the way up into World War II, there were times of shortage, when people were hoarding everything from flour to toilet paper.
Interestingly enough, other than one or two periods of serious drought, in every one of these cases the food shortages have been second-order crises, caused by something else, mostly wars.
Yet there were other things that caused food shortages too, like the Great Depression.
Food Shortages Aren’t What They Seem
One of the interesting lessons to be taken from the COVID-19 pandemic is that a food shortage doesn’t mean that food doesn’t exist. It means that food isn’t on the shelves, where customers can buy it.
During the height of the 2020 shortages, there was plenty of food on our nation’s farms, in grain silos and at food processors.
In fact, there was so much excess food that farmers and producers were destroying millions of dollars worth of it. Yet grocery store shelves were bare across the country.
Much the same thing happened during the polar vortex freeze in February of 2021. People again rushed to the grocery stores, stockpiling food to get through the crisis. Within 24 hours, the grocery store shelves looked the same as they had during April of the previous year. Yet there was no shortage of food on the farms, in grain silos and at food processors.
Related: Cheapest Foods that You Can Stockpile
The problem in both of these recent cases was a combination of people hoarding and lack of sufficient transportation. It’s important to note that the hoarding we’re talking about here is considerably different than what preppers do. Preppers build up a stockpile over considerable time, which doesn’t noticeably affect supplies in the stores.
On the other hand, hoarders wait until the last minute and then try to buy the stores out, making several trips to do so, if necessary. Sadly, they don’t save that food for the next potential crisis, giving them the opportunity to do it all over again.
There are several important lessons that we can take from those shortages, but the two most important are how quickly they can occur and how they affect food prices.
Now that people have seen what happens to the supply chain in an emergency, we can expect this to become much more normal.
Even for smaller disasters where hoarding is not indicated, many people will do so; and they’ll do so with items that it doesn’t make sense to stock up on. Remember the toilet paper shortages?
But the more critical lesson is about prices; because those will ultimately have a greater impact in future shortages.
Just like we saw the prices of eggs, milk and a host of other things go up during the 2020 shortages; we can expect them to go up in any future disaster that brings shortages along with it. That’s nothing more than the law of supply and demand in action.
Our Looming National Debt
But here’s the thing; the very next crisis we might all face could be an economic crisis. The Coronavirus bills that have been pushed through Congress in the last year have brought the national debt up to just shy of 30 trillion dollars in an effort to forestall that crisis.
Some economists were talking about the debt being unsustainable when it topped $10 trillion. That was 22 years ago and we’re now triple that much.
Few people realize the seriousness of this situation.
We’ve become accustomed to our country having a huge federal debt and one you get past the first trillion, the number is so big, that most people really can’t wrap their head around it. We slipped past the point of our national debt being greater than our nation’s GNP, with hardly anyone noticing it.
That’s supposed to be a tripwire leading to economic collapse, so there are a few of us who are holding our breath, waiting to see when it happens.
Related: The Most Probable Crises You Need To Prepare For In 2021
There are always economic gurus who are claiming that we’re on the brink of a financial disaster. Right now the only ammunition they need to back up this argument is the national debt. That’s what has caused other countries to go over the financial cliff in recent years, including both Argentina and Greece.
Based upon those two examples, we should have already seen our economy collapse. But it hasn’t. So we have to ask ourselves why. What has kept our economy afloat, when those other countries couldn’t do it?
The answer boils down to the US economy being the largest in the world, which is a major part of the reason why the American Dollar is the world’s reserve currency.
Countries literally have to have US dollars in order to do international trade, because other than in a few cases where countries have signed agreements between themselves to use their own currency for trade (like trade between Russia and China), all international trade is paid for in dollars.
This has allowed our country to export some of our national debt, encapsulated in American Dollars and Treasury Bonds. Other countries unwittingly support our massive debt, because they pretty much have to. Should the world get together and decide not to, we’d be in trouble.
How An Economic Collapse Causes Food Shortages
What this means is that a financial collapse could actually happen at any time, pretty much without warning. If it does, the best model for how it would go would be to look at what happened during Argentina’s collapse in 1999.
Roughly 25% of the population was out of work, with runaway inflation making it harder and harder for those who were working to make ends meet.
During that collapse, food was the greatest shortage that people had to deal with. Just like our shortages during the pandemic, there was plenty of food on Argentina’s farms too. But it wasn’t making it to the store shelves; not because of lack of transportation, but due to pricing.
Related: Why Are Food Prices Increasing One Month into the Corona Virus Pandemic?
The entire food industry runs on very narrow profit margins. Grocery stores usually only make about a 2.2% net profit.
The basic business model they operate under is that they make up for that lack of profit through selling a high amount of volume.
But if prices are rising rapidly, such as they would do during a financial collapse, that small amount of profit they make quickly turns into loss.
They can’t turn their inventory fast enough to ensure that they make a profit on the food they buy.
Someone running a grocery store has two choices during such a time. They can either hold onto the things they buy, waiting until they can sell them at a higher price or they can raise prices. Both actually end up happening to varying degrees, as those stores try to make enough of a profit to stay in business.
Here’s where we often get it wrong. We tend to think of food shortages of there not being any food at all. But even in the midst of the worst food shortages the world has ever seen, there has always been food.
The problem isn’t that there is no food, but rather that there isn’t enough to go around. We can see that throughout history and we can still see it in various parts of the world today.
With a widespread lack of food causing prices to rise, it will become harder and harder for people to buy food for their families.
The only people who will have food in abundance will be those who have enough money to buy the food they need, at ridiculously inflated prices or those who can grow their own.
This same thing happened during the Great Depression. People who lived in rural areas generally had enough food to eat, even if they didn’t have anything else.
On the other hand, people out of work in the cities were standing in soup lines, trying to get something to fill their bellies. These are the people who were on the edge of starvation, and we’ll see them again, the next time we have an economic collapse.
The Government Won’t be Able to Bail Us Out
Most of the population is now conditioned to think that the government will bail them out when that time comes. With over 80 years of the government giving out food stamps and the various “COVID stimulus packages” which have been approved by Congress, people have become accustomed to the government being there for them, providing for their every need, even if they weren’t well provided for.
But how is the government going to be able to do that, if the dollar collapses?
The only way they could, would be to issue more fake money as “quantitative easing,” just like they have with the COVID stimulus packages, increasing the national debt even more.
But if the national debt ends up being even a portion of the cause for the economic collapse, then it will probably be impossible for the government to keep giving out those payments, even if they start out doing so.
During Greece’s economic collapse, the World Bank forced them to adopt economic austerity measures, in order to bring the nation’s debt back under control. That meant dropping many of the country’s social programs and leaving people to sink or swim on their own. There’s absolutely no reason to think that things would go any different, when our own financial collapse comes.
As we find ourselves being pushed into the next economic crisis, we can expect the media to make a big deal of the people suffering. Of course, if there’s a president in office that they like, they will try to minimize that reporting. But even then, as things get worse, they’ll start putting pressure on the government to offer more aid. But if the government can’t do that, it will just be so much noise.
Once again, we’ll be faced with a time when the only people who will be in good shape financially speaking will be those who are able to care for themselves. Since we have a smaller percentage of our population living in rural areas, that problem will be more pronounced.
Nevertheless, we are in a time when at least preppers are seeing the need to grow their own food, so at least some people will have food to eat. But that isn’t going to be much help to those who haven’t prepared.
The only solution for many of those people will be to steal what they can. In the February freeze, my brother-in-law, who lives in Fort Worth, lost a large part of his firewood pile to people stealing firewood from him.
That’s a pretty clear indicator of what will happen to our food and other supplies, when the economic collapse comes. If we expect to be able to feed our families, we’re going to have to protect that food from those who would take it from us.
The big question is, are you ready for that day to come?
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Need to increase footprint of my garden.
Stu
Need to be able to guard it as well.
The very last thing said in this article. speaks the most truth…
Are you.
This is a very very good analysis overall but it preaches to the choir here at AAP. Maybe more emphasis needed to be put on storable foods and a deep pantry since growing food is challenging for everybody especially off season. I’m writing about the inanities of the COVID commandments, having some fun with that. Maybe for here…
People might want to think about growing a ‘Victory Garden’ to help offset some of the food shortages.
A simple laundry basket with dirt in it can grow food.
Small containers can grow onions, radishes, beets, similar.
People also might want to look up ‘square foot gardening’.
When an economic collapse comes, your retirement and savings will be confiscated by the governments.
Money in your pocket will be nearly worthless too.
Best to learn how to survive without money.
There is one other issue – FedCoin.
Government could switch to that, but there are major problems for each individual.
Digital currency will be banned too.
Oh, and since most of the soil in the usa is overfarmed, eroded, and of poor quality, it is going to be hard to grow things without chemical fertilizers. And those take currency, which would have little value.
Learn how to compost things to enrichen your soil.
Human urine (clean, no infections or drugs), when mixed 10 parts water to one part urine, makes an excellent fertilizer!
One normal human urinates the equivalent of over 1,000 pounds of nitrogen in a year!
Plus all the other things plants need.
Finally, mature talk about pee! I am a guy and live in the country, so I pee everywhere. We maintain a 100 foot wide turf grass lawn around the house as protection from brush fires. When one of the dogs poops on the lawn the grass around the poop is fertilized and turns greener. When I pee on the lawn nothing happens. Because the nitrogen in pee is not in a form plants can use until it has time to react with carbon. Your garden soil probably doesn’t have enough carbon to break down the pee but the compost pile is the perfect place for that, just mix in lots of leaf litter and paper/cardboard and your pee will be a valuable resource, and the tomatoes won’t taste funny.
Mark 13:35 pretty much says it for economic collapse, all you can do is be prepared.
Mind your pees and q’s.?
Might have too find some state/federal land etc that may be near you and in the middle of a woods grassland etc and plant if shtf. Out of sight out of mind. Also find dry blood or blood to ward off pests like deer that would otherwise eat it up. Make sure you don’t take the same route stop the site so that the land around doesn’t get trampled all down like a path
The importance of “Like minded” needs to be included in the equation. Prepping must include the ability to have a life line of “Most Trusted Like Minded People”
Often those preparing believe they can self isolate and survive “In House” but sustainability must look at the defense models one places their ability to sustain whatever comes down the tube. That without doubt includes those that are committed to preparing and can be trusted with “your life – families lives”
Flying below the radar sounds great but in reality information on most people is readily available on line or news papers / archives / history etc
I am older – often considered overly conservative – am known for my trading/buying/selling etc which is a “BAD” quality in times of trouble so a back up plan must include more than one sustainable “PLAN”
I encourage anyone that believes we are living in uncertain times, consider “Conspiracy theory as being reality as it comes to tuition” PREPARE NOW
Anything a prepper does in readiness planning will not go to waste no matter what true value items you purchase – learn – store etc My long term food items have increased in value over 45% during the past four years – can be used anytime one chooses plus gives one a sense of value and self worth pertaining to doing your very best to secure the safety and welfare of your family. Great web site – fantastic value – appreciate your efforts
“Trusted like minded “people is always an interesting subject. When it get right down to life and death choices who do you suppose your trusted friend will choose, him and his family or you and yours. As long as eeveryone’s fed and safe all is well, when that changes people change. Interesting to think about.
Tiggy and J Pup
Agree on “trusted and like minded”. Civil wars always split families. This will as well. Imagine if you are the one with all of the food stocks. Imagine you have a close family member who likes to eat but has a problem with hard work. How long can you help them maintain an inflated calorie count before they get voted off the island? How can you trust them to not go on a mid nite raid of your stocks? Having to guard your supplies against your “members” would be a major bummer I believe. Many will be faced with this. We all have experiences with those who can never get enough of (fill in the blank) given to them.
Agree 100% with J Pup. People will say anything to get in. Anyone with kids knows you can turn a No to a Yes and have very few problems. Turn that Yes to a No and that is where it gets interesting.
Yes Consco it’s worth pondering anyway. There may be people out there that would give up their families health and security for you and yours but I have my doubts.
Like minded people are hand selected – considerable preparing and dialogue required – alignment would mean sustainability is number one on their and your hit parade. What people bring to the table Skills-Protection-Materials-ability to work as a unit are but a few of the requirements. Like minded also includes primary and secondary responses – not necessarily requiring a HUGE gathering on a remote location where the fortress is set in place and everyone comes a running. Specific individuals – varied locations/safe havens and a military preparedness should always take a front seat. YES there is a “remote” location that is set in play for that worse case scenario that is off grid and well stocked for long term sustainability (water-fire power-short and long term food stock-various livestock both small and med size etc etc etc
Selection of Like Minded if done in a true selective fashion is somewhat choosing a wife (AND that does not always end well)
Like minded does not mean that all family members will be part of the group – unfortunate but true
Like minded started with those who believe in and have been carefully preparing similar to one’s self – not someone who hits the panic button and comes a calling to take a advantage of a freebie. There will be difficult decisions but in times of significant strife, survival is the word
I got an interesting post from a friend of mine today. It is so cogent. I will paste it below:
Extraordinary analysis from a foreign country.
Some people have the vocabulary to sum up things in a way that you can quickly understand them. This quote came from the Czech Republic. Someone over there has it figured out. It was translated into English from an article in a Prague newspaper.
“The danger to America is not Joe Biden, but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of a Biden presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Biden, who is a mere symptom of what ails America. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Biden, who is, after all, merely a fool. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools, such as those who made him their president.”
While a coronal mass ejection is always in play, I think the most pressing, urgent problem facing the country is the continued tendency of spending imaginary dollars.
While I don’t have the time to strong-arm the figures, I recently read that repaying one trillion dollars at the rate of a billion a day would take 3200 years. I can’t verify that figure, someone who has a computer with a big math program can probably verify if that is correct.
Although I could look it up, I don’t know if a trillion is 100 billion or 1,000 billion of the top of my head. If the 3200 years is correct, then a trillion is 1,000 billion.
In any event, they are fairy tale numbers as we don’t even have paper to cover a fraction of the amount of our national debt.
Keynes was wrong. Government cannot spend their way out of overwhelming debt.
LCC
I sent this to a friend of mine who is a hard core lefty and gushes about Hiden with the Bidens. HE loved it but says it is more partisan BS. He is not very introspective and not one to admit his mistakes in life.
And a Trillion is a Thousand Billions so only 333 days at a Billion per day, not that it is reality anyways.
I tell people that if Gold were like sand and the beaches were covered with it, and anyone could scrape up shovel fulls of it for free, would it be worth $1800 per ounce? Of course not. Well there goes the dollar……same thing.
The debt ain’t so bad … the way I figure it, $25 trillion is only a stack of $100 bills just under 17,000 miles high (ignoring compression of those on the bottom)
We are in the midst of an interesting time. Just bought a sawmill. It is an 11 month wait. Just ordered a log splitter, 6 month wait. Getting ready to buy a tractor. No wait except for the implements. Getting ready to retire. House is almost complete. Off grid. Will have many things to do. Chicken coup, greenhouse, solar kiln, pole barn. Tree planting fence building, amend soil, plant garden and the list goes on. We are spending money now before it devalues.
Trying to turn money into assets.
That old adage of guns, beans, bullets may need some work.
I have seen people far wiser than me on here, people like Clergy Lady, LCC etc advising to buy tools, yard, shop and kitchen type. I would add hardware such as nails, screws, wire both electrical and the barbed type, lumber, fence posts, duct tape and this goes on.
The left wants to kill our way of life off. There can’t be no doubt in even the most simpleminded persons mind now that the Media is nothing more than left wing propaganda.
LOL you cant call the Black Lives Matter lady a capitalist without getting banned. Can’t make fun of her for stealing funds intended to “help black people” whatever that means.
As an 59yo white male I am of course part of that most hated demographic. Seems I have unearned monikers like “racist”, “homophobe”, “misogynist” attached to me.
Our society will collapse. It is OK to be a “sanctuary city” for illegals but not for the 2nd Amendment.
After Hiden with the Bidens announced that no Amendment really means what it says, even the most brain dead amongst the left who voted for the senile old racist should see THEY will be in trouble as well.
I see that Amazon and Audible banned a book about the issues that real life people have had with transgenderism.
Any conservative view point is taken off of social media. The fence is ok for the capital but not the country. I could go on and on here for sure.
I hope people that have done this to us dont expect my help during the coming collapse. Let them turn to their government for assistance.
You know your country has become third world when the government needs a six foot cyclone fence around the capitol and 25.000 troops to guard against the peons revolting.
I wonder why they never stop to think why they need that kind of protection. I know if my employees over the 50 some years I was in business treated me like an invading force it certainly would have crossed my mind that perhaps I should revise my management style.
I had employees come back and seek re-employment after they had left for what they thought were greener pastures which led me to believe that my management style was not that atrocious. I certainly didn’t feel the need to carry a gun to protect myself from my staff.
Perhaps I would not, but I have the feeling that were I an elected official and felt the need to protect myself with chain link, walls, barbed wire and armed troops, I hope I would be asking myself, “What are you doing wrong to require all that to protect yourself from “your electorate”?
Flunky: “Sire, the peasants are revolting!”
King Louie: “Yeah, they stink on ice!”
(With apologies to Mel Brooks)
Lattelady9:
Biden may not be all there, and he may or may not have been duly elected, but there has NOT been a military coup.
PLEASEdon’t troll here with unfounded rumors.
If you have proof, please cite your reliable sources and I’ll apologize, otherwise I call bs
Thanks.
Agree. Too much bonehead speculation (BS)… Doesn’t contribute to the issue at hand.
No one is in the White House!!! The troops that are there are to protect it, and the Military are in control of the US now!!
Consco, you’re on the right track. I can NOT say your behind schedule because I don’t claim to be clairvoyant. I’ve been where you are may, may years ago and back then I thought I would never have time to get there. Best advice is a military concept, “prioritize and keep improving your position.” It sounds like you’re making the effort and not just opining about it. I agree that having money is less important than having the life sustaining items you need; land, livestock, tools, and knowledge while you can still get them. Having the ability to create what you need to be self-sufficient, requires the resources you suggest having on hand but don’t forget to get the replacement parts you will need for your equipment. As an example, for my tractor I’ve stored, replacement glow plugs, a new starter, replacement filters, hydraulic fluid, all filters and a second set of tires to name a few. This all took time and I focused on it when I was still working. Now that I’m retired, they are coming in handy and to acquire these items today would easily cost me twice to three times the price.
I would also recommend you form or join a group of like-minded individuals in your area. I’ve found this to be very valuable. You mentioned mending the soil and starting a garden. This year my group is focused on seed collection and seed storage for the garden crops we grow. This would not be possible if we didn’t start our gardens years ago. I’m still mending my soil after more than a decade and going organic is not as simple as some make it out to be.
You will have a lot of irons in the fire at the same time. I hope you can keep them all hot.
Cavalryman
Love the moniker!
Wife and I have a lot of energy. Fingers crossed we keep good health!. We are both pretty fit for “old” people.
You make a good point about spares. Have spare currently for all firearms and for the Solar system/Gens. When I take delivery of the sawmill I have a list of spare parts that will come home with it. Trust me spares are in our plans. Have never owned a tractor and looks like we will buy a Kubota MX5400. I will have all of the spares you mention for the engine. Tires never entered my mind. I need to see how long tires last, I may get a spare set of those. Thanks for the heads up.
Our property has been forest land and never tilled or planted. I will be composting everything I can to make it as rich as possible. Agree that it will take time.
You guessed it, my military training and a lifetime of running construction projects makes me a task master. I am very organized. We will attack one problem at a time and complete it. Wife is more like a butterfly which keeps me balanced. She is living artwork. Saves me from hanging it on the wall.
We do not watch TV much if at all so no distractions. She is desperately wanting to use all of the tools so we will get her up to speed and see what she likes. My guess is playing tractor and sawmill will be her “thing” plus planting the garden. And maintaining it.
Our few neighbors do not garden. They really seem to not do much of anything outdoors. Odd for people who live off grid surrounded by woods, but not for me to judge. They buy firewood, do not hunt and do not raise any type of livestock. They are about 1/2 a mile from us.
Not really sure what kind of a group we will find. trust me, we will look. I agree with the importance of that.
Please keep the advice and insights coming. There are some bright people on here with a lot of experience. This is just another form of group to gain knowledge through.
Tire life on tractor:
Assuming you get Ag tires (lug type), which you probably will on an MX5400, and don’t drive too much on pavement, the rear tires will last 2500-3000hrs. If 4wd, the front tires will last around 600hrs.
I have a 41hp Yanmar with 2100 hrs, DO drive on paved drive a lot, and my rear lasted until this week. The tractor is 10 years old (2011 model). I replaced rear and front ( I get 550ish hours out of front), ran $1200. I keep a spare set of front tires/tubes on hand.
My previous tractor was a 33hp 4whd, and I found the same hours applied to tire wear on it.
Next thing to stock is FUEL. Put diesel in 55gal drums with PRI-D as a preservative and store in a cool, dry place. It will last forever.
Sawmill is a great tool as well. Mine is a Woodmizer LT40 manual (no hydro) owned for 30 years. Best possible tool to own on a homestead if you have timber of your own.
TnAndy
Thanks for the Excellent advice!! I plan on having spares for sure. Oil, all filters, belts, hoses, glow plugs etc. Tires and tubes. No paved roads to drive it on really. All gravel and dirt.
I will have to see where I can buy diesel in 55 gallon drums. I have a full pump to pump it out so that would be fantastic.
Yep, we have timber. I will have plenty of spares for the Wood Mizer as well.
Please keep any good info coming.
Thank you
I buy empty drums from a local fuel distributor, then fill them at the local farm co-op fuel station with off road diesel. I made up some special ‘drum pallets’ that hold one drum with a back/sloping sides on it so the drum can’t shift sideways off the pallet too allow me to handle a full drum (about 400lbs) using the tractor front end loader forks. (By the way….be SURE you buy a set of pallet forks for your FEL…..you’ll end up using them more than a bucket)
I can haul 3 drums on pallets in my pickup truck.
If you want to see photos, contact me at this throw-away email address Fa_que2(at)mail(dot)com and put DIESEL FUEL in the header so I can pick it out of all the spam that normally fills that mail box and I’ll send you a photo.
A $100 bill is 0.0043 inches thick. 100 $100 bills or $10,000 is a stack 0.43 inches thick. $25 trillion dollars is a stack of $100 bills just under 17,000 miles high. I do not think we can pay that off any time soon.
My daughter who is a financial planner and operates on a much higher level than I informed me tonight that a trillions dollars ia 1,000 billion.
She said it is like geological time, it is difficult to grasp a figure like that.
One of the problems facing us going forward is the fact that the majority of people now live in urban situations with little or no room to grow any food. True, you can grow tomatoes in an old bucket or radishes in a basket of dirt, but you aren’t going to get more than a few meals from that, and certainly not enough to keep you alive for more than a few days.
It takes a good sized garden to grow enough food to keep even one person alive for a year, so for many people stockpiling is the only real option.
This is a link to one website for figuring out how much you need to grow. Hope it’s helpful.
https://melissaknorris.com/podcast/how-to-plan-your-best-garden-harvest-for-a-years-worth-of-food/
Miss Kitty
Wise statement as far as it goes but…..too many have no sense at all of self reliance. Look how many people cannot use basic tools. Look how many cannot cook.
For those of us on websites like these, I believe most of us get it. For the population at large, I do not hold that same belief. I do believe that more have started prepping since the “peaceful protests” have happened and the Chinese Bat Meat flu was dropped on us. But I believe they have only bought some things like food or TP to make them feel good. That will help us in the short haul for sure but in the long haul these people with no idea how to do things on their own have extreme difficulties just eating.
A lot of canners and pressure cookers and jars were sold last year, but home many have Clergy Lady’s knowledge of their use?
As you point out look what it takes to feed a family of 4. I hope there is one person that reads your “column” and gets it.
Yes Consco it’s worth pondering anyway. There may be people out there that would give up their families health and security for you and yours but I have my doubts.